The battle for the federal seat of Monash may become one of the most closely watched races of the 2025 Australian election, with the Nationals confirming that they will field a candidate and sitting member and independent Russell Broadbent tamping down speculation by announcing that he will again run for the seat he has held on and off since 1990.
A multiparty contest between the Nationals, the Liberals, Labor, and the Greens is shaping up. Independent Deb Leonard, who has been hosting an array of kitchen table events at local pubs, and holding community forums on a number of push button issues from the energy transition to the NDIS, will join them, alongside her fellow independent, Russell Broadbent.
Liberal candidate Mary Aldred has joined Deb Leonard in actively campaigning, while the Greens have confirmed that their preselection process is almost complete and they will announce their candidate next week. Labor is yet to confirm their representation.
The 2022 election saw Broadbent retain the seat with 46% of the primary vote and 57% after preferences. However, analysts suggest the 2025 contest could be much tighter, with Leonard looking to improve on her 2022 result of 11%. Preferences could play a key role in the result.
When asked by the Prom Coast News where she might direct her preferences, Leonard said, “Voters should be trusted to think for themselves about how they would like to distribute their preferences. I believe each voter should be empowered to preference the candidates any way they want, and not be told how to vote by a party that may have vested interests.”
Political observers note that the seat – previously known as McMillan – has historical precedent for surprise results, having been won from third place by the Country Party in 1972 with just 16.6% of the primary vote. The win occurred in eerily similar circumstances, when sitting Liberal member Alex Buchanan was disendorsed but ran as an independent, helping the Country Party over the line from well behind by directing his preferences away from his former party.
The potential for preference flows to significantly influence the outcome has increased speculation about the seat’s marginality, particularly with the possibility of both Nationals and independent candidates splitting the traditional conservative vote. Where will Russell Broadbent direct his preferences? He is yet to say, but it may hold the key to Monash this election. Cara Schultz
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